Quarterly Results Analysis with Python

Every quarter when results come out, I spend sufficient hours looking at the financial results of the stocks I am tracking to elicit nagging comments from my better half. So developed this simple python script which does the analysis and generates me the PDF which I email to myself to look at during office commute.

The code as always is available at my github page here.

Some sample plots

Intend to update the scripts for other analysis as and when I get some time.

It’s there to serve you, not to guide you

 stock market 
My colleague is a hard core trader. He intellectually understands the Gardner mentality to investing but doesn’t believes in it.
Most of his investing is based on momentum and he trades on news. 

With the recent crush his trades like many have decreased and he is daily looking at the market movement trying to guess if it will rebound or see a new lower bottom. 

Today as we were discussing markets, got reminded of the following Berkshire letter of 1987 about market. 

From: 1987 letter 
Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains.

At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.

But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”

Ben’s Mr. Market allegory may seem out-of-date in today’s investment world, in which most professionals and academicians talk of efficient markets, dynamic hedging and betas. Their interest in such matters is understandable, since techniques shrouded in mystery clearly have value to the purveyor of investment advice. After all, what witch doctor has ever achieved fame and fortune by simply advising “Take two aspirins”?

The value of market esoterica to the consumer of investment advice is a different story. In my opinion, investment success will not be produced by arcane formulae, computer programs or signals flashed by the price behavior of stocks and markets. Rather an investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his thoughts and behavior from the super-contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace. In my own efforts to stay insulated, I have found it highly useful to keep Ben’s Mr. Market concept firmly in mind.

Following Ben’s teachings, Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results – not by their daily, or even yearly, price quotations – whether our investments are successful. The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it. As Ben said: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” The speed at which a business’s success is recognized, furthermore, is not that important as long as the company’s intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate. In fact, delayed recognition can be an advantage: It may give us the chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price.

Living With The Black Swan

 

From about 2000 years, in many European languages, a black swan was a metaphor for something that was clearly impossible. And then black swans were found in Australia. So a black swan became a metaphor for a completely unexpected event actually occurs, one we had not imagined was impossible. Black swans appear regularly – Skype, iPhone, the Cloud…. If a black swan landed in your marketplace, would you recognize it? Most companies don’t. It’s no coincidence that the average age of companies – big companies – is falling fast, at the same time that black swan events are increasing.

You never see black swans coming – you have to be ready to respond when they arrive. 

This talk is about the kind of thinking and organizational structure that can help you live successfully with the black swans. It is about how to build an innovative, responsive, enduring organization

Goes well with this post on antifragile.